How many backup cameras are on the road and how did that happen?
Working on a major new business pitch, we found ourselves asking that question. The potential client’s ability to do on site service, a key selling feature, would be impacted by the diffusion of these technologies. Backup cameras proved to be an interesting subject, initially pitched as an expensive add-on for the safety obsessed, they had progressed to a mandated feature on par with air-bags. We didn’t have much time and official numbers were lacking. It was time for me to do some back of napkin estimations…
Penetration of back-up cameras in new vehicles (Percentage)
The search for the answer began with a dead end. There seemed to be no count of how many cars currently on the road were factory equipped with cameras. However, there was easily obtainable information on the number of new cars sold equipped with backup cameras by year. This information was enough to begin to make an estimation.
Commonly available is the age distribution of cars currently on the road. This led to two assumptions: that cars with and without backup cameras fall out of use at the same rate and that the age distribution of vehicles stays the same over time.
Age distribution of cars on the road (Percentage)
Backup camera adoption in cars on road (Percent)
With these assumptions we can combine the age distribution of cars with the percent of new cars sold with backup cameras to model their diffusion through the marketplace.
Conclusion
50% of cars on U.S. roads will not be equipped with a back up camera until 2024. In the near term the client has time to shift service practices and prepare for the coming shift in the market. Now is also the time to begin new messaging practices that begin to move away from emphasizing a “we come to you” SMIP, to ease the consumers transition to dedicated service centers.
The long adoption window raises further questions of how backup camera adoption will be influenced by the EV and autonomous vehicle trends that are heating up. A limitation of this analysis is the assumption that the age distribution of cars will stay the same. Americans have a growing penchant for keeping their cars longer, and this is reducing the speed at which this now standard safety technology is penetrating the market. Since this analysis was completed, the average age of cars on the road set a new record.